Trump threatens to double Mexico tariffs over migrant caravans

US President Donald Trump threatened on Thursday, 12 November 2026, to "immediately" double tariffs on goods from Mexico unless the Mexican government stops migrant caravans that he says are heading for the US border. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum answered the same day that "since President Trump came into government, no migrant caravan has reached the northern border", and said one of the two groups now moving through Mexico has already dwindled from several hundred people to fewer than 100. Trump gave no deadline, did not say which tariffs he meant and did not cite a legal basis, so for now this is a threat rather than a policy.

The warning matters well beyond migration. Mexico is the United States' largest trading partner, with two-way trade of $96.34 billion in September alone, according to the freight-industry publication FreightWaves, and the two governments are in the middle of difficult talks over tariffs and the future of their trade relationship.

What exactly did Trump say?

Trump made the threat in a post on his Truth Social platform. "Huge CARAVANS are forming and beginning their illegal march through Mexico," he wrote, according to Al Jazeera. "MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED," he added, followed by "There will be no leniency!", as quoted by Bloomberg and UPI.

He linked the caravans directly to last week's US midterm elections, in which his Republican Party lost control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. "Here we go again! With the perceived loss by the Republicans in the Midterms - I WAS NOT ON THE BALLOT - the INVASION of our Country is taking place again," he wrote, according to UPI. He said Mexico, Texas's incoming governor and US border and immigration agencies had "been so informed". In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governorship from Republican Greg Abbott in the 3 November election, Bloomberg reported.

Trump offered no evidence for his claim that an "invasion" was under way again, BBC Mundo noted, and no formal tariff order had been reported by the time of writing.

How did Mexico respond?

Sheinbaum used her regular morning news conference on Thursday to push back. She said there are currently two caravans. One, in Arriaga in the southern state of Chiapas, had formed with about 500 to 600 people "and now fewer than 100 remain", according to Anadolu Agency and the Mexican business outlet Expansión. The second, which set out from Honduras, is receiving what she called "humanitarian assistance, treatment based on human rights".

She described Mexico's approach as persuasion rather than force. "We inform the people in the caravan that it is very difficult to get into the United States; that if their goal is to reach the United States, they will not be able to, because that possibility does not exist," she said, as quoted by Expansión. Migrants are helped to return home safely, she said, or may stay in Mexico "under certain conditions, in a specific place". The "vast majority" go back to their countries of origin once they understand they cannot cross, she added, according to BBC Mundo.

Sheinbaum told reporters Mexico would not use force to break up the caravans, public radio station KJZZ reported. She also warned that migrants are sometimes misled: "sometimes there are people who deceive migrants and tell them, for example, that immigration policy changed with the result of the US election, which is false," she said, according to BBC Mundo. When Bloomberg sought comment, Mexico's foreign and economy ministries did not immediately reply.

How big are the caravans?

Estimates differ, and none is official. The largest group, which calls itself "Dios con Nosotros" ("God With Us"), left the southern Mexican city of Tapachula, near the Guatemalan border, on Tuesday, 10 November. A Chiapas state government source estimated about 1,500 people were taking part, many of them families with small children, Reuters reported via Al Jazeera. The Spanish news agency EFE said the group initially numbered around 2,000, FreightWaves noted. Deseret News, citing AFP, said the caravan had set out from San Pedro Sula in Honduras on 3 November, US election day.

The migrants, mostly from Central America, say their first goal is Mexico City, more than 1,000 km away, a walk likely to take several weeks, where they plan to seek help and protection from the Mexican government. Some told reporters that the Democratic election wins had given them new hope. "There might be a light at the end of the tunnel, a way for us to get in," Cesar Sandoval, a 47-year-old Nicaraguan who was deported from the US a few months ago, told Reuters.

Mexican authorities have already acted against at least one group. On Tuesday, the National Guard, immigration officers and Chiapas police stopped about 100 Central Americans who had crossed the Suchiate River from Guatemala, and about 40 were detained, AFP reported. AFP said this is the third caravan to try to reach the US since September; the previous two were broken up in Chiapas and their members given temporary permits to stay.